每次總統(tǒng)大選結(jié)束后，位于華盛頓特區(qū)的美國國家情報委員會（The National Intelligence Council，NIC）都會發(fā)布一份關(guān)于安全風(fēng)險的報告，為美國情報界提供長期戰(zhàn)略分析。該委員會于12月10日發(fā)布了最新報告《2030年全球趨勢：不一樣的世界》（Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds），其中涉及跨邊境沖突、恐怖主義和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟崩潰等諸多話題。

其中有一個主題尤為引人注意，即中國可能面臨的糧食與水資源危機。報告稱，氣候變化，加上中國的城市化進(jìn)程和中產(chǎn)階級生活方式的興起，至2030年，中國將產(chǎn)生巨大的用水需求以及伴隨而來的糧食短缺。報告中寫道：“到2030年，水將成為比能源或礦產(chǎn)更為搶手的資源。”

截至2030年，全球食物需求預(yù)計將增加超過35%，而這意味著世界需要更多的水。畢竟，農(nóng)業(yè)與畜牧業(yè)占到全球總用水量的70%。根據(jù)一項重要的國際研究顯示，全球水需求量將比當(dāng)前的可持續(xù)供水量高出40%以上。

中國將是最容易受到這種趨勢影響的國家。比如，報告指出，水荒（正在融化的喜馬拉雅冰川無濟于事）、土壤貧化等環(huán)境壓力，以及城市化帶來的農(nóng)業(yè)可用地壓力，將使中國谷物產(chǎn)量面臨巨大挑戰(zhàn)。中國是世界主要小麥生產(chǎn)國，也是第二大玉米生產(chǎn)國與消費國，僅次于美國。

但到2030年，中國甚至可能無法實現(xiàn)小麥和玉米的自給自足，將不得不增加進(jìn)口，而NIC得出的結(jié)論是，這可能引發(fā)“國際市場糧食價格大幅上漲。”

如果中國和其他發(fā)展中國家能夠找到提高作物產(chǎn)量和維護(hù)水資源的新方法，以上預(yù)測的狀況便不會發(fā)生。NIC推薦了三項需要開發(fā)的新技術(shù)：轉(zhuǎn)基因作物、精細(xì)農(nóng)業(yè)和高科技灌溉。

• NIC認(rèn)為，在分子生物學(xué)的推動下，植物遺傳學(xué)取得重大突破，前景廣闊，將實現(xiàn)未來15 - 20年內(nèi)的糧食安全。通過分子植物育種，可以設(shè)計出需要少量化肥的抗蟲抗旱作物。中國等國家可能需要克服來自消費者和國際監(jiān)管機構(gòu)的阻力。

 

 

 

 

After each Presidential election, The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the Washington, D.C., agency that provides long-term strategic analysis to America's intelligence community, releases a report on security risks. Its newest report, issued on December 10th and called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, covers many topics from cross-border conflict to terrorism to regional economic collapse.

One theme in particular that stands out this year is the coming food and water crisis in China. According to the report, climate change coupled with China's move toward urbanization and middle class lifestyles will create huge water demand and therefore crop shortages by 2030. As the report states: "Water may become a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030."

Globally, demand for food is estimated to increase by more than 35% by 2030 and that means the world will need more water. After all, agriculture and livestock account for 70% of our water use. According to a major international study, global water requirements—mostly to sustain agriculture and livestock—will rise to 40% above our current sustainable water supplies.

China is particularly vulnerable to this trend. The report points out, for example, that cereal production in China faces significant challenges from environmental stresses relating to water scarcity—the melting Himalayan glaciers aren't helping—soil depletion, and pressures on land availability from urbanization. China is a major wheat producer and the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the US.

By 2030, though, China may no longer be self-sufficient in these crops and might be forced to increase its imports potentially triggering, the NIC concludes, "a significant price run-up on international markets."

None of this needs to happen if China—as well as other developing nations—pursue new methods to increase crop yields and preserve water. The NIC suggests three new technologies that need to be developed: GMO crops, precision agriculture, and high-tech irrigation.

• The NIC believes that breakthroughs in plant genetics—enabled by molecular biology—hold great promise for achieving food security in the next 15-20 years. Insect and drought resistant crops that require small amounts of fertilizer can be designed through molecular plant breeding. Nations like China will have to overcome consumer and international regulatory resistance.